Crime and prices: thefts of expensive precious metals from cars

Whether economic incentives matter for crime is studied in a novel way, from expensive precious metal thefts by thieves stealing catalytic converters from cars. Sharp and sizable variations in the prices of precious metals embedded in converters are combined with newly assembled U.S. crime data. Precipitously fast increases in precious metal prices generated a sizeable rise in auto-part thefts, while subsequent price declines and policy responses quickly reversed this pattern. The resulting boom-and-bust dynamics provide clean evidence that prices affect crime, and for these crimes that local resale infrastructure and target availability shape both the magnitude of this effect and the effectiveness of policy response.