The energy transition as a development challenge in Latin America and the Caribbean

The energy transition, understood here as the shift from fossil-fuel-based energy systems to clean energy ones, is fundamentally a development challenge. Countries face the transition with distinct domestic configurations of energy systems, productive structures and development models, which shape both the benefits they can derive from it and their ability to capture them. In Latin America and the Caribbean, a particular challenge is moving beyond the region’s limited and predominantly upstream participation in energy transition value chains towards higher-value clean energy activities. This report develops a typology of four transition contexts to help explain how these differing country conditions shape the energy transition: low-friction frontrunners, fossil-locked economies, low-friction stragglers and dual-track transitioners. The typology considers countries’ structural dependence on fossil fuels alongside their progress in clean energy deployment and energy sector decarbonisation. These categories are not rigid classifications, but provide a practical lens for understanding the different challenges, opportunities and policy priorities countries face.