US leadership in trade statecraft: diminishing returns and a diminished role

This article puts current developments in US trade policy in an historical context. It identifies three broad types of trade statecraft the US has pursued since 1945: alliance politics, promoting an international trade order that serves the national interest and unilateralism. It argues that US trade statecraft has exhibited all three types. What has changed has been the relative importance of each in any given period. The article illustrates this in three broad time periods: 1945 to the early 1970s, when US trade statecraft pursued ‘alliance politics’; the early 1970s to the mid 2010s when US statecraft was shaped by two-level trade diplomacy aimed at promoting a trading order that served US interests; and finally, 2016 to the present day and the turn to unilateralism. Unilateralism, always latent in US decision making, has now come to the fore because key policy makers see diminishing political and commercial returns from promoting an international trade order. This trend is likely to result in a diminished US role in world trade.