Trump, U.S.-China competition, and the future of technology transfer

What do the geopolitical dynamics of the Trump era mean for future patterns of technology transfer to the Global South? Drawing on theories of oligopolistic competition in economics and historical cases of great power rivalry, I argue China’s rise and U.S.-China competition will likely increase opportunities for technology transfer to developing states, all else equal. However, great powers, like firms in oligopolistic markets, can compete or collude. Given President Trump’s desire for a “deal” with China, the implications of a U.S.-China “grand bargain” for investment and technology flows to other regions must be considered. Any agreement that sustainably lowers U.S.-China tensions could reduce both sides’ incentives to bolster independent spheres of economic influence, and in turn to trade technology for political support from Global South countries. Nonetheless, a stable deal will be hard to reach and harder to sustain. Insofar as U.S.-China rivalry improves low-income countries’ access to and ability to bargain for technology, it would be a small silver lining to an otherwise fraught situation.