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Polarisation and public policy: political adverse selection under Obamacare

Author

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  • Bursztyn, Leonardo
  • Kolstad, Jonathan T.
  • Rao, Aakaash
  • Tebaldi, Pietro
  • Yuchtman, Noam

Abstract

Politicising policies designed to address market failures can diminish their effectiveness. We document a pattern of ‘political adverse selection’ in the health insurance exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act (colloquially, ‘Obamacare’): Republicans enrolled at lower rates than Democrats and independents, a gap driven by healthier Republicans. This selection raised public subsidy spending by approximately $155 per enrollee annually (3.2% of average cost). We fielded a survey to show that this selection does not exist for other insurance products. Lower enrolment and higher costs are concentrated in more Republican areas, potentially contributing to polarised views of the policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bursztyn, Leonardo & Kolstad, Jonathan T. & Rao, Aakaash & Tebaldi, Pietro & Yuchtman, Noam, 2026. "Polarisation and public policy: political adverse selection under Obamacare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 129368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:129368
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/129368/
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    JEL classification:

    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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