Regional Market Trajectories for Green Innovation: The Case of European Biogas Plant Manufacturing

This paper examines the evolution of biogas plant manufacturing markets across European regions over a 25-year period (1996–2020), using a mixed-methods approach that combines trademark data with qualitative interviews in Germany. We use trademarks as a proxy for market-oriented activities and identify three regional trajectories of market formation: 1) first-comer regions, which initiated and commercialized the technology, 2) latecomer regions, which fostered path diversification and niche markets, and 3) non-entry regions, where technology was explored but failed to take root. Rather than establishing causal relationships, the paper reconstructs and interprets these trajectories in relation to policy environments, actor networks, and place-specific industrial structures. Our findings suggest that market formation in emerging green industries is heterogeneous rather than uniform. Each trajectory is embedded in broader innovation system dynamics, including policy mixes that acknowledge multiple rationales for green innovation and actor networks connecting first- and latecomer regions. Furthermore, the mobilization of place-specific capabilities and industrial heritage, particularly in Germany, appears to have shaped regional opportunities for market development. Sustained market formation emerged as the exception rather than the norm, as most European regions did not develop durable biogas manufacturing specializations.