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Interest Rates and Domestic Borrowing Costs in the Medium-Term Perspective


  • Dvorkovich Arkady


  • Gurvich Evsey



The study was aimed at forecasting interest rates of the Russian government securities. The system of simultaneous equations was constructed, including as endogenous variables GKO interest rate, interest rate for Russian currency securities, Central Bank refinancing rate, and expected exchange rate. The model’s accuracy proved to be fairly high on historic data. It was found that ‘market integration’ was increasing over the period, and this growth accounts for 2/3 of the observed decline in the GKO interest rates from 1995 to 1997. Though the model provides good description of the interest rates before the financial crisis, its performance during the crisis period deserves further analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dvorkovich Arkady & Gurvich Evsey, 2000. "Interest Rates and Domestic Borrowing Costs in the Medium-Term Perspective," EERC Working Paper Series 99-08e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-08e

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    2. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
    3. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280.
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    More about this item


    interest rates; financial market(s); GKO; domestic debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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