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Productivity Dynamics of Artificial Intelligence Adoption: An Analysis of the Machinery Industry

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  • Masayuki Morikawa

Abstract

This study documents the adoption of AI in the workplace and its impact on productivity among workers in the Japanese machinery industry. At the end of 2025, 34% of workers use AI in their jobs, with R&D accounting for the largest proportion of AI-utilized jobs. Among AI users, the mean share of tasks using AI, efficiency gains, and resulting productivity effects are 12%, 20%, and 4%, respectively. Most workers use AI for only a small fraction of their overall job tasks. The productivity effect is larger for continuous AI users than for new AI users, suggesting selection and learning effects of AI adoption. The use of AI at work is projected to increase labor productivity in the industry by 0.3-0.4 percentage points annually over the next several years. If the use of AI in R&D activities improves the efficiency of R&D investment, it is likely to generate productivity gains that extend beyond simple labor-saving effects. Finally, more than 80% of workers hold positive views toward expanding the use of AI in the workplace, with stronger support among those already using AI and those facing severe labor shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • Masayuki Morikawa, 2026. "Productivity Dynamics of Artificial Intelligence Adoption: An Analysis of the Machinery Industry," CAMA Working Papers 2026-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-49
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2026-07/49_2026_Morikawa.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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