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Hysteresis and full employment in a small open economy


  • Timothy Watson
  • Juha Tervala


We simulate a small open economy Two Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model featuring ‘learning by doing’ in production whereby changes in employment generate hysteresis in productivity and output. Credit constraints and hysteresis amplify the efficacy of Fiscal stimulus in a small open economy with a floating exchange rate and inflation-targeting central bank such that output multipliers can exceed unity; welfare multipliers can be positive; and the degree of hysteresis, output and employment multipliers match empirical evidence well. Fiscal stimulus helps reverse output hysteresis, and price-level targeting provides superior macroeconomic stabilisation compared to other simple monetary rules combined with fiscal stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Watson & Juha Tervala, 2021. "Hysteresis and full employment in a small open economy," CAMA Working Papers 2021-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-46

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    Cited by:

    1. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

    More about this item


    Hysteresis; open economy macroeconomics; monetary policy; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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