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The Safer, the Riskier: A Model of Financial Instability and Bank Leverage

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  • Ryo Kato
  • Takayuki Tsuruga

Abstract

We examine the role of bank leverage to explain why the 2007-08 financial crisis unfolded at a time when the economy appears to be less fragile to crisis risks. To this end, we extend the model introduced by Diamond and Rajan (2012) to a variant where the probability of financial crises varies endogenously. In our model, aggregate liquidity shock plays a key role in precipitating a crisis because high liquidity demand in a highly leveraged banking system is likely to expose the economy to greater crisis risks. We consider an example of a “safe” environment where liquidity demand tends to be low on average. Using numerical analysis, we show that the “safer” environment could incentivize banks to raise their leverage, resulting in a banking system that is more vulnerable to liquidity shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryo Kato & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "The Safer, the Riskier: A Model of Financial Instability and Bank Leverage," CAMA Working Papers 2014-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-26
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-10/26_2014_Kato_Tsuruga.pdf
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    2. Pompella, Maurizio & Dicanio, Antonio, 2017. "Ratings based Inference and Credit Risk: Detecting likely-to-fail Banks with the PC-Mahalanobis Method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 34-44.
    3. Ryo Kato & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2022. "Pecuniary externalities, bank overleverage, and macroeconomic fragility," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(4), pages 554-577, December.
    4. Gardó, Sándor & Klaus, Benjamin, 2020. "Overcapacities in banking: Measurement, trends and determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 819-834.
    5. D'Orazio, Paola, 2019. "Income inequality, consumer debt, and prudential regulation: An agent-based approach to study the emergence of crises and financial instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 308-331.
    6. Albaity, Mohamed & Mallek, Ray Saadaoui & Noman, Abu Hanifa Md., 2019. "Competition and bank stability in the MENA region: The moderating effect of Islamic versus conventional banks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 310-325.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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