Drivers of compliance intentions and actual tax behaviour: consistent and inconsistent taxpayers

This paper analyses six waves of survey data on the tax compliance of Estonian residents, collected between 2018 and 2023. It studies the behavioural mechanisms underlying compliance by applying the theory of planned behaviour, where intentions mediate the effects of attitudes, norms, and perceived control on behaviour. The analysis uses structural equation modelling, allowing latent constructs and observed intentions to be jointly estimated. The results confirm the relevance of this model in explaining tax compliance, with social norms and tax morale being more prominent in shaping compliance intentions than deterrence. Using a novel taxonomy of consistent and inconsistent taxpayers, defined by the alignment of intentions and behaviour, the paper documents pronounced heterogeneity across these groups: for consistent taxpayers, compliance intentions are shaped by both intrinsic and external factors with intrinsic motivation dominating, while for inconsistent taxpayers external factors are of key importance. These findings highlight the relevance of psychological mechanisms in tax behaviour and have implications for targeted policy design beyond standard rational choice models