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Trade Policy, Income Volatility and Welfare


  • Tom Krebs
  • Pravin Krishna


This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk and uses the empirical estimates of this relationship to asses the welfare costs of changes in trade policy. The empirical analysis proceeds in two steps. First, longitudinal data on income of Mexican workers are used to estimate individual income risk in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the variation in income risk and trade barriers - both over time and across sectors - is used to arrive at estimates of the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk. Given the estimate of this relationship, a simple dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets is used to calculate the associated welfare effects of changes in trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Krebs & Pravin Krishna, 2004. "Trade Policy, Income Volatility and Welfare," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 367, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:367

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Newey, Whitney K. & McFadden, Daniel, 1986. "Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 36, pages 2111-2245 Elsevier.
    5. Cosslett, Stephen R, 1983. "Distribution-Free Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Binary Choice Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 765-782, May.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-745, September.
    7. Matzkin, Rosa L, 1992. "Nonparametric and Distribution-Free Estimation of the Binary Threshold Crossing and the Binary Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 239-270, March.
    8. Manski, Charles F., 1985. "Semiparametric analysis of discrete response : Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-333, March.
    9. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1986. "Consistency in Nonlinear Econometric Models: A Generic Uniform Law of Large Numbers," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 790, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-531, May.
    11. de Jong, Robert M., 1997. "Central Limit Theorems for Dependent Heterogeneous Random Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 353-367, June.
    12. Andrews, Donald W.K., 1988. "Laws of Large Numbers for Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 458-467, December.
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    More about this item


    Trade Policy; Income Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade


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