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Modelling Tobacco Consumption with a Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit Model


  • Xueyan Zhao
  • Mark Harris


It is quite often in economics that we wish to model a discrete ordered random variable, such as bond ratings, employment status, consumption levels and so on. However, traditional approaches to modelling such a discrete ordered random variable ignore both the potential build-up of zero obsersavtions typically observed and, relatedly, that these zeros might come from two distinct situations: non-participants and infrequent consumers. Analogously to the zero inflated (augmented) poisson (and negative binomial) count models, we propose a zero inflated Ordered Probit model. Monte Carlo results suggest that the new model performs well when the data is generated according to such a process and that a Likelihood Ratio-type statistic has good properties in selecting the correct model. Finally, the model is applied to a consumer choice problem of tobacco consumption

Suggested Citation

  • Xueyan Zhao & Mark Harris, 2004. "Modelling Tobacco Consumption with a Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 363, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:363

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chaloupka, Frank, 1991. "Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-742, August.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    3. Lisa Farrell & Tim R. L. Fry & Mark N. Harris, 2003. "“A Pack A Day For Twenty Years”:Smoking And Cigarette Pack Sizes," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 887, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
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    6. Jeffrey E. Harris & Sandra W. Chan, 1999. "The continuum-of-addiction: cigarette smoking in relation to price among Americans aged 15-29," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-86.
    7. J. Williams, 2004. "The effects of price and policy on marijuana use: what can be learned from the Australian experience?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 123-137.
    8. Cameron, Lisa & Williams, Jenny, 2001. "Cannabis, Alcohol and Cigarettes: Substitutes or Complements?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(236), pages 19-34, March.
    9. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
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    12. Winfried Pohlmeier & Volker Ulrich, 1995. "An Econometric Model of the Two-Part Decisionmaking Process in the Demand for Health Care," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(2), pages 339-361.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth W. Clements & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "Economic Aspects of Marijuana," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Harris, Mark N. & Zhao, Xueyan, 2007. "A zero-inflated ordered probit model, with an application to modelling tobacco consumption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1073-1099, December.
    3. William Greene, 2014. "Models for ordered choices," Chapters,in: Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 15, pages 333-362 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Brooks, Robert & Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2007. "An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data," MPRA Paper 8509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. William H. Greene & David A. Hensher, 2008. "Modeling Ordered Choices: A Primer and Recent Developments," Working Papers 08-26, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Abdulbaki Bilgic & Wojciech Florkowski & Cuma Akbay, 2010. "Demand for cigarettes in Turkey: an application of count data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 733-765, December.
    7. William Greene, 2007. "Discrete Choice Modeling," Working Papers 07-6, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    Ordered outcomes; discrete data; drug consumption; zero-inflated responses.;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching


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