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Learning to Forget? Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil

  • Zhang, Lei

    (University of Warwick)

  • Marcus Miller
  • Kannika Thampanishvong

We examine whether Brazilian sovereign spreads of over 20 percent in 2002 could be due to contagion from Argentina or to domestic politics, or both. Treating unilateral debt restructuring as a policy variable gives rise to the possibility of self-fulfilling crisis, which can be triggered by contagion. We explore an alternative political-economy explanation of panic in financial markets inspired by Alesina (1987), which stresses exaggerated market fears of an untried Left-wing candidate. To account for the fall of sovereign spreads since the election, we employ a model of Bayesian learning and analyse the effects of contagion and IMF commitments.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 227.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:227
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  1. Martin Ellison & Natacha Valla, 2000. "Learning, Uncertainty And Central Bank Activism In An Economy With Strategic Interactions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," NBER Working Papers 5563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Rosal, Joao Mauricio & Spagat, Michael, 2002. "Structural Uncertainty and Central Bank Conservatism: The Ignorant Should Keep Their Eyes Shut," CEPR Discussion Papers 3568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
  5. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus, 2003. "Coordination Failure, Moral Hazard and Sovereign Bankruptcy Procedures," CEPR Discussion Papers 3729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Alejandro Izquierdo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability in Argentina," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 903-923, 07.
  7. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "On currency crises and contagion," Working Paper Series 0139, European Central Bank.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Crippsss, Martin, 1991. "Learning rational expectations in a policy game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 297-315, April.
  10. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, . "Why are BrazilĀ“s Interest Rates so High?," Working Papers 224, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modelling," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1260, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Driffill, John & Miller, Marcus, 1993. "Learning and Inflation Convergence in the ERM," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 369-78, March.
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