IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecj/ac2002/135.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Which Type of Central Bank Smooths the Political Business Cycle?

Author

Listed:
  • Maloney, John

    (University of Exeter)

  • Andrew Pickering

    (University of Bristol)

  • Kaddour Hadri

    (University of Liverpool)

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model of Rational Partisan Business Cycles, wherein wage contracts overlap elections and wage setters have to make a prediction about the election result. Uncertainty leads to pre- and post-election date output fluctuations. Election result probabilities are imputed and then used to construct variables in electoral uncertainty. Using data from 20 OECD countries over the period 1960-1998 left wing incumbents are found to increase output, but the increased expectation of a left wing regime reduces it. These political effects are found to be offset by Central Bank Independence and in particular, objective independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Maloney, John & Andrew Pickering & Kaddour Hadri, 2002. "Which Type of Central Bank Smooths the Political Business Cycle?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 135, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/res2002/Maloney.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Maloney & Andrew C. Pickering & Kaddour Hadri, 2003. "Political Business Cycles and Central Bank Independence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 167-181, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.