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Monetary policy and the rigidity of firm employment expectations

Author

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  • Groiss, Martin
  • Sondermann, David

Abstract

This paper examines how monetary policy announcements affect firms’ employment expectations. Using German survey data, we combine high-frequency monetary policy surprises with survey response dates to identify the immediate and dynamic effects of monetary policy on firm-level expectations and subsequent employment. Contractionary shocks lead firms to revise employment plans downward immediately and persistently, eventually reducing employment growth. Initially, hiring plans are reduced, while layoffs increase later. Production expectations adjust twice as often but revert faster, consistent with greater labour market rigidity. Labour market institutions shape these responses: firms subject to the minimum wage or with lower collective bargaining coverage revise employment expectations more strongly. Financially constrained firms exhibit disproportionately larger downward revisions, indicating that the financial accelerator operates already at the expectation formation stage. Because firms adjust plans well before effects appear in aggregate data, employment expectations provide an early measure of monetary policy transmission to the labour market. JEL Classification: E24, E52, J20, J63

Suggested Citation

  • Groiss, Martin & Sondermann, David, 2026. "Monetary policy and the rigidity of firm employment expectations," Working Paper Series 3272, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263272
    Note: 943715
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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