IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20202395.html

The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: a new database

Author

Listed:
  • Ari, Anil
  • Ratnovski, Lev
  • Chen, Sophia

Abstract

This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close relationship between NPL problems—elevated and unresolved NPLs—and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning approach identifies a set of pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems related to weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions. Our findings suggest that reducing pre-crisis vulnerabilities and promptly addressing NPL problems during a crisis are important for post-crisis output recovery. JEL Classification: E32, E44, G21, N10, N20

Suggested Citation

  • Ari, Anil & Ratnovski, Lev & Chen, Sophia, 2020. "The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: a new database," Working Paper Series 2395, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202395
    Note: 3402164
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2395~834e0e7137.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frederic Boissay & Stijn Claessens & Alan Villegas, 2020. "Tools for managing banking distress: historical experience and lessons for today," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    2. Zeqiraj, Veton & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Economic uncertainty, public debt and non-performing loans in the Eurozone: Three systemic crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Lucia Alessi & Brunella Bruno & Elena Carletti & Katja Neugebauer & Isabella Wolfskeil, 2021. "Erratum to: Cover your assets: non-performing loans and coverage ratios in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(108), pages 775-775.
    4. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "COVID-19, nonperforming loans, and cross-border bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Elisa Fusco & Bernardo Maggi, 2022. "Computing nonperforming loan prices in banking efficiency analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti, 2021. "How much do non-performing loans hinder loan growth in Europe?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Kasinger, Johannes & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Ongena, Steven & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schmeling, Maik & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2021. "Non-performing loans - new risks and policies? NPL resolution after COVID-19: Main differences to previous crises," SAFE White Paper Series 84, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. Avgeri, I. & Dendramis, Y. & Louri, H., 2021. "The Single Supervisory Mechanism and its implications for the profitability of European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Olajide Solomon Fadun & Peter Silwimba, 2023. "Does credit risk management impact the financial performance of commercial banks?," International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy (2687-2293), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 5(2), pages 55-66, April.
    11. Angela Pîslaru & Matei Kubinschi & Florian Neagu, 2023. "Does it pay off to invest in bank staff training? Survey‐based evidence from an emerging market banking sector," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1055-1072, October.
    12. Martin Hodula & Jan Janku & Lukas Pfeifer, 2021. "Interaction of Cyclical and Structural Systemic Risks: Insights from Around and After the Global Financial Crisis," Research and Policy Notes 2021/03, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    13. Bacchiocchi, Andrea & Bischi, Gian Italo & Giombini, Germana, 2022. "Non-performing loans, expectations and banking stability: A dynamic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil K., 2021. "Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Ratnovski, Lev, 2020. "COVID-19 and non-performing loans: lessons from past crises," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 71.
    16. Diana Bonfim & Leonor Queiró & Luísa Farinha, 2021. "Heterogeneity in loan pricing: the role of bank capital," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lampe, Max & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2022. "The economic impact of the NPLcoverage expectations in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 297, European Central Bank.
    18. Farnè, Matteo & Vouldis, Angelos, 2024. "Do retail-oriented banks have less non-performing loans?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    19. Asror Nigmonov & Syed Shams, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic risk and probability of loan default: evidence from marketplace lending market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, December.
    20. Huizinga, Harry & Bertay, Ata, 2021. "Non-performing Loans – New Risks and," Other publications TiSEM a6895089-0d83-451c-894b-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Konrad Adler & Frederic Boissay, 2020. "Dealing with bank distress: Insights from a comprehensive database," BIS Working Papers 909, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Sebastian Edwards, 2021. "Macroprudential Policies and The Covid-19 Pandemic: Risks and Challenges For Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 29441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Várkonyi, Patrik & Szücs, Tamás & Cziglerné, Erb Edina & Pasitka, Ármin, 2024. "A pénzügyi instrumentumok új számviteli standardja a Covid árnyékában [European banks implementation of IFRS 9 in the shadow of the pandemic]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 201-222.
    24. Agnesa Krasniqi Pervetica & Skender Ahmeti, 2023. "The Effect of Financial Risk Management on the Financial Performance of Commercial Banks in Western Balkan Before and During COVID-19," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 179-190.
    25. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202110 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.