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Mapping Technological Trajectories: Evidence from Two Centuries of Patent Data

Author

Listed:
  • Bergeaud, Antonin

    (HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences)

  • Gozen, Ruveyda

    (London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Programme on Innovation and Diffusion)

  • Reenen, John Van

    (London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP); Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

Abstract

We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - “technological trajectories” and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country’s sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country’s initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergeaud, Antonin & Gozen, Ruveyda & Reenen, John Van, 2026. "Mapping Technological Trajectories: Evidence from Two Centuries of Patent Data," HEC Research Papers Series 1614, HEC Paris, revised 16 Feb 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1614
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.6167252
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    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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