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Demand for Information, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, and the Response of U.S. Treasury Securities to News

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  • Foucault, Thierry

    ()

  • Benamar, Hedi

    ()

  • Vega, Clara

    ()

Abstract

We measure demand for information prior to nonfarm payroll announcements using a novel dataset consisting of clicks on news articles. We find that when information demand is high shortly before the release of the nonfarm payroll announcement, the price response of U.S. Treasury note futures to nonfarm payroll news surprises doubles. We argue that this relationship stems from the fact that market participants have more incentive to collect information when uncertainty about asset payoffs is higher, as implied by Bayesian learning models. Thus, high information demand about macroeconomic news is a proxy for high macroeconomic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Foucault, Thierry & Benamar, Hedi & Vega, Clara, 2018. "Demand for Information, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, and the Response of U.S. Treasury Securities to News," HEC Research Papers Series 1263, HEC Paris, revised 03 May 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1263
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public information; Macroeconomic News; Uncertainty; U.S. Treasury futures; Investors Attention; Information Demand; Bitly; Media Coverage;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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