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A Model of Trading in the Art Market

Author

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  • Lovo, Stefano
  • Spaenjers, Christophe

Abstract

We present an infinite-horizon model of endogenous trading in the art auction market. Agents make purchase and sale decisions based on the relative magnitude of their private use value in each period. Our model generates endogenous cross-sectional and time-series patterns in investment outcomes. Average returns and buy-in probabilities are negatively correlated with the time between purchase and resale (attempt). Idiosyncratic risk does not converge to zero as the holding period shrinks. Prices and auction volume increase during expansions. Our model finds empirical support in auction data and has implications for selection biases in observed prices and transaction-based price indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lovo, Stefano & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2014. "A Model of Trading in the Art Market," HEC Research Papers Series 1150, HEC Paris, revised 22 Sep 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1150
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    Keywords

    art; auctions; endogenous trading; price indexes; private values; returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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