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A Model of Trading in the Art Market

Author

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  • Lovo, Stefano
  • Spaenjers, Christophe

Abstract

We present an infinite-horizon model of endogenous trading in the art auction market. Agents make purchase and sale decisions based on the relative magnitude of their private use value in each period. Our model generates endogenous cross-sectional and time-series patterns in investment outcomes. Average returns and buy-in probabilities are negatively correlated with the time between purchase and resale (attempt). Idiosyncratic risk does not converge to zero as the holding period shrinks. Prices and auction volume increase during expansions. Our model finds empirical support in auction data and has implications for selection biases in observed prices and transaction-based price indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lovo, Stefano & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2014. "A Model of Trading in the Art Market," HEC Research Papers Series 1150, HEC Paris, revised 22 Sep 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1150
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    File URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2404339
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernales, Alejandro & Reus, Lorenzo & Valdenegro, Víctor, 2022. "Speculative bubbles under supply constraints, background risk and investment fraud in the art market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. David, Géraldine & Li, Yuexin & Oosterlinck, Kim & Renneboog, Luc, 2021. "Art in Times of Crisis," Other publications TiSEM 34925083-7378-4691-ba63-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan & Vecco, Marilena, 2021. "Reading between the lines in the art market: Lack of transparency and price heterogeneity as an indicator of multiple equilibria," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    5. Li, Yuexin & Ma, X. & Renneboog, Luc, 2021. "In Art We Trust," Discussion Paper 2021-016, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Etro, Federico & Marchesi, Silvia & Stepanova, Elena, 2020. "Liberalizing art. Evidence on the Impressionists at the end of the Paris Salon," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Brett Hemenway Falk & Gerry Tsoukalas & Niuniu Zhang, 2022. "Economics of NFTs: The Value of Creator Royalties," Papers 2212.00292, arXiv.org.
    8. Ma, Marshall Xiaoyin & Noussair, Charles N. & Renneboog, Luc, 2022. "Colors, Emotions, and the Auction Value of Paintings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog & José A Scheinkman & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "When a Master Dies: Speculation and Asset Float [Optimal financial crises]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3840-3879.
    10. Antonia Díaz & Belén Jerez & Juan Pablo Rincón-Zapatero, 2023. "Housing Prices and Credit Constraints in Competitive Search," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 220-270.
    11. Sarah J. Skinner & John D. Jackson, 2019. "American art as an investment: new evidence from an alternative approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 367-381, April.
    12. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4939-4963, July.
    13. Aubry, Mathieu & Kräussl, Roman & Manso, Gustavo & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2019. "Machine learning, human experts, and the valuation of real assets," CFS Working Paper Series 635, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Christophe Spaenjers, 0. "Art as an Asset: Evidence from Keynes the Collector," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 490-520.
    15. Whitaker, Amy & Kräussl, Roman, 2023. "Art collectors as venture capitalists," CFS Working Paper Series 696, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Dragana Cvijanović & Christophe Spaenjers, 2021. "“We’ll Always Have Paris”: Out-of-Country Buyers in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4120-4138, July.
    17. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Emmanuel Kwesi Arthur & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "The influence of economic policy uncertainty shocks on art market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(29), pages 3404-3421, June.
    18. Milad Nozari, 2022. "Investment horizon for private‐value assets: Evidence from the art market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 229-246, June.
    19. Li, Yuexin, 2021. "Pricing art: Returns, trust, and crises," Other publications TiSEM 8832c172-83dd-4ed9-8215-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Ma, X., 2019. "Essays on alternative investments," Other publications TiSEM 7f4d5b36-96cb-4eac-ae91-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Etro, Federico & Stepanova, Elena, 2021. "Art return rates from old master paintings to contemporary art," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 94-116.
    22. Penasse, J.N.G. & Renneboog, Luc & Scheinkman, Jose, 2021. "When a master dies : Speculation and asset float," Other publications TiSEM a3595ed2-e69d-4bb2-9320-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    23. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Kräussl, Roman & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2023. "The pricing of digital art," CFS Working Paper Series 716, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    art; auctions; endogenous trading; price indexes; private values; returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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