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Дългосрочен Ефект На Застаряването Върху Публичните Финанси В България 2010-2050


  • Dimitar Vasilev


  • Tsvetan Hadzhiyski

    () (Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting)


Настоящето изследване представя дългосрочна прогноза за демографското развитие в България и оценка на неговия ефект върху икономиката и публичните финанси. Разгледани са по-специално някои елементи на публичните разходи, които традиционно се считат за зависими от демографските процеси. Резултатите на интегрирания модел, разработен за тази цел, показват, че може да се очаква намаление на числеността на населението в период до 2050 г., придружено с влошаване на неговата структура. Тези процеси ще доведат до съществен спад в темпа на икономическото развитие след 2030 г., водейки и до рязко нарастващ дял на бюджетните разходи към БВП. Като цяло обаче нивото на бюджетните разходи към края на периода няма да се различава в сравнение с нивото от началото на периода, тъй като нарастването му след 2030 г. ще бъде компенсирано от намаление за периода 2007-2030 г. Съответно, може да се твърди, че рискът от застаряване на населението за България е сравнително нисък.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitar Vasilev & Tsvetan Hadzhiyski, 2008. "Дългосрочен Ефект На Застаряването Върху Публичните Финанси В България 2010-2050," Working paper series 22008bg, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
  • Handle: RePEc:eaf:wpaper:22008bg

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    застаряване на населението; фискална устойчивост; публични финанси;

    JEL classification:

    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H - Public Economics
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics


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