Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3 Really Increased? Evidence from a Gravity Analysis
This study examines the observable phenomenon of growing trade intensity among the ASEAN+3 countries over the last twenty years by using standard gravity approach. While there is a conventional belief that trade intensities within CJK (China Japan and Korea) and between CJK and ASEAN have increased, we cannot find proper evidence that the relations have intensified over time beyond the gravity residuals. Moreover, with the exclusion of Hong Kong, the fitted trade flows projected by the gravity equation can explain most of the actual flows within CJK. With respect to the trade relations between CJK and ASEAN, substantial time-serial fluctuations in trade intensity disappear if the two entrepots of Hong Kong and Singapore are excluded. A test for any special trade relations between each CJK country and ASEAN reveals that the widely known close trade relations between Japan and ASEAN are mostly explained by the gravity factors even in the heyday of the Japanese yen bloc, but that the Chinese connection which the gravity regression cannot explain, may exist in trade with ASEAN. It is also revealed that recent developments in trade between Korea and ASEAN are growing increasingly distant from the realm of the gravity explanation.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200|
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:21766. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.