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Understanding and applying long-term GDP projections

Author

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  • Paul Hubbard

    (The Australian National University)

  • Dhruv Sharma

Abstract

We project gross domestic product (GDP) for 140 world economies from 2020 to 2050 based on United Nation's demographic projections, the International Monetary Fund's GDP statistics and estimates of potential labour productivity derived from the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and a methodology published by the Australian Treasury. We review the conceptual framework underpinning this model, and identify its core assumptions. Finally, we highlight potential applications for this model, including : considering the dispersion of global economic activity; assessing the potential scale of activity across different trading blocs; and quantifying the impact of domestic policy reform scenarios in individual economies. Rather than provide an exhaustive analysis of the results, we make the data and results freely available . The views expressed in this paper represent the views of the authors and not those of the Australian Treasury.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubbard & Dhruv Sharma, 2016. "Understanding and applying long-term GDP projections," Macroeconomics Working Papers 25601, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:25601
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Sheng & Peter Drysdale & Chunlai Chen, 2019. "Economic Growth In China And Its Potential Impact On Australia–China Bilateral Trade: A Projection For 2025 Based On The Cge Analysis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(04), pages 839-862, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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