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Firms’ Perceptions of the Business Cycle and Their Managerial and Financial Conditions

  • Kazumi Asako

    (PRI)

  • Koichi Ando
  • Kazuyuki Matsumoto
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    Perception of the business cycle can differ among firms, which has been confirmed by extensive survey data. The question we want to answer in this paper is "What causes differences in business cycle perception?" by utilizing a newly designed questionnaire. Specifically, we match properties emphasizing the absolute level of economic activities or the direction of their changes and indicators of a firm's managerial and financial conditions, and examine the relationship between them. Based on our results, we could not find a particular indicator for the properties of firms that indicate level or trend change. However, a higher level of capital or number of employees suggests a tendency to emphasize change or rate of change, rather than the level of the business survey index. With regards to the time horizon of the business cycle, profit ratios (profit against sales or total assets) in general are good indicators. Firms with a high debt ratio tend to be myopic. Regression analysis shows that firms with high rates of investment/sales significantly tend to have a long-term vision.

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    File URL: http://130.56.61.71/node/22591
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    Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 22591.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22591
    Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
    Web page: http://www.eaber.org

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