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Evaluating the Impacts of the Current Economic Slowdown on (Un)employment in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen Viet Cuong

    (Indochina Research & Consulting (IRC), Vietnam.)

  • Pham Thai Hung

    () (Indochina Research & Consulting (IRC), Vietnam.)

  • Phung Duc Tung

    (Indochina Research & Consulting (IRC), Vietnam.)

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of the current economic slowdown on employment generation and unemployment in Vietnam. The study reports that as the country has experienced a slowdown, there would be an employment shortfall of around half million jobs in 2009. And if the growth prospect of 2010 is not improved compared to that of 2009, Vietnam would encounter a shortfall of more than one million jobs in 2010. As a consequence, our projected unemployment rates are higher than that of 2008 by nearly one and a half percentage point in 2009 and two percentage points in 2010. The findings are relatively robust under different assumptions of the economic growth. The study provides a somewhat different outlook from what has been suggested by the media - which has tended to highlight jobs losses taking place in certain parts of the country. The results of our analysis suggest that government efforts to stave off the effects of the crisis should have been focused more strongly on employment and job creation

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen Viet Cuong & Pham Thai Hung & Phung Duc Tung, 2010. "Evaluating the Impacts of the Current Economic Slowdown on (Un)employment in Vietnam," Working Papers 01, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
  • Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0110
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    File URL: http://depocenwp.org/modules/download/index.php?id=75
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    Cited by:

    1. Dang, Vinh & Do, Trang & Nguyen, Cuong & Phung, Thu & Phung, Tung, 2013. "Achievements and challenges in the progress of reaching millennium development goals of Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dang, Vinh & Do, Trang & Nguyen, Cuong & Phung, Thu & Phung, Tung, 2013. "Economic Development, Inequality and Climate Change in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54190, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic slowdown; employment; employment elasticity; Vietnam;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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