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Can Vietnam achieve millennium development goal on poverty reduction in high inflation and economic stagnation?

Author

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  • Nguyen Viet Cuong

    (Development Economics Group, Mansholt Graduate School, Wageningen University, the Netherlands.)

Abstract

An important goal of Millennium Development Goals that Vietnam committed is to reduce the overall and food poverty. Although Vietnam has achieved remarkable reduction in poverty during the recent years, Vietnam might not achieve its MDG on poverty reduction because of high inflation and economic stagnation. This paper uses three recent Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys in 2002, 2004 and 2004 to forecast poverty in 2008 and 2010 to examine whether Vietnam can achieve its MDG on poverty reduction. The forecasts take into account high inflation in 2008 and economic stagnation during 2008-2009. It is found that Vietnam can be able to achieve its MDG on reduction of overall poverty given that the economic growth rate during 2008-2009 is equal to half of the growth rate during 2006-2007. However, the MDG on reduction of food poverty might not be achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen Viet Cuong, 2009. "Can Vietnam achieve millennium development goal on poverty reduction in high inflation and economic stagnation?," Working Papers 01, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0109
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    Cited by:

    1. Le, Chau & Nguyen Viet, Cuong & Nguyen, Thao & Nguyen, Thuy & Phung, Tung, 2013. "Firms’ Performance, Employment and Poverty during the Economic Slowdown Period in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Piacentini, Mario & Nguyen, Cuong, 2010. "Child Labor and FDI: Evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 72804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:ilo:ilowps:471421 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mustapha K. Nabli, 2011. "The Great Recession and Developing Countries : Economic Impact and Growth Prospects," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2539, April.
    5. Kang, Woojin & Imai, Katsushi S., 2012. "Pro-poor growth, poverty and inequality in rural Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 527-539.
    6. Nguyen, Anh & Nguyen, Nhat, 2010. "Vietnam Industrial Policy and Large Economic Groups: A discussion," MPRA Paper 63461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Huynh, Phu. & Parisotto, Aurelio., 2012. "Case studies of policy coherence initiatives in developing Asia," ILO Working Papers 994714213402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Manh-Toan Ho & Ngoc-Thang B. Le & Manh-Tung Ho & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2022. "A bibliometric review on development economics research in Vietnam from 2008 to 2020," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 2939-2969, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vietnam; Millennium Development Goals; Poverty; Food Poverty; Household Survey.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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