Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription (Revision of Working Paper No. 2006-14)
Using a macroeconometric model we provide a quantitative estimate of the cash transfer or tax cut that would achieve recovery from a severe recession when the central bank is unable to achieve full recovery because of the zero bound. We introduce an automatic transfer and simulate its triggering in the severe recession. We find that an automatic transfer that averages 3% of quarterly GDP repeated four times (quarterly) reduces the unemployment rate an additional full percentage point and thereby completes the recovery. We recommend that legislatures enact an automatic counter-cyclical fiscal policy that will assure adequate stimulus without generating a long-term debt problem.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Policy Modeling|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (302) 831-2565
Fax: (302) 831-6968
Web page: http://www.lerner.udel.edu/departments/economics/department-economics/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:08-04.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Saul Hoffman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.