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Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland


  • Boriss Siliverstovs
  • Rainald Ötsch
  • Claudia Kemfert
  • Carlo Jaeger
  • Armin Haas
  • Hans Kremers


This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

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  • Boriss Siliverstovs & Rainald Ötsch & Claudia Kemfert & Carlo Jaeger & Armin Haas & Hans Kremers, 2008. "Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 840, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp840

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal & Edoardo Bucchignani & Elisa Palazzi & Donatella D’Onofrio & Paolo Gasparini & Warner Marzocchi, 2015. "Analysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 289-320, January.

    More about this item


    Climate change; GEV; Bayesian modelling; Great Alpine Heat Wave;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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