When it Rains The Dual Impact of Rainfall on Child Survival in Rural Senegal

Using 37 years of longitudinal data on over 60,000 children, we examine how rainfall affects child survival in rural Senegal. Two contrasting effects are likely to be at play: a beneficial effect from increased rainfall stemming from improved income and nutrition, and a detrimental effect resulting from a more adverse disease environment. To assess the effects of rainfall on child survival rates, we use highresolution rainfall data matched with discrete-time event data at the person-month level. Our analysis uses two distinct measures of rainfall deviations: one representing rainfall deviations during the previous rainy season, and another for current rainfall deviations. Additionally, we explore the heterogeneity of the impact over different groups. Next, we make use of causes of death data to try and support the interpretation of our main results and, finally, present some tentative simulation results. Our results confirm that the rates of child mortality are influenced by fluctuations in income and nutrition related to rainfall, as well as by the seasonality of the burden of disease. This burden escalates notably during the rainy season, compounded by food scarcity in lean periods. The severity of this stress amplifies when rainfall in the preceding rainy season has been insufficient. We also present simulations of child mortality under different rainfall scenarios, providing a policyrelevant perspective on how future climate variability may affect child survival in semi-arid, rain-fed agricultural settings.