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Crises, informalité et reconfigurations sur le marché du travail : quatre décennies de bouleversements économiques au Brésil

Author

Listed:
  • François Roubaud

    (DIAL-LEDa, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Université)

  • Mireille Razafindrakoto

    (DIAL-LEDa, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Université)

  • Alexis Saludjian

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ).)

Abstract

Cet article analyse les ajustements du marché du travail brésilien sur longue période, notamment lors des périodes de crise macroéconomique, qui occupent quasiment la moitié des quarante dernières années. Un des objectifs est de soumettre les différentes théories de l’informel à l’épreuve des faits, et tout particulièrement l’hypothèse de son rôle anti-cyclique que lui attribue la thèse dualiste (le modèle que nous qualifions de crise « canonique »). Sur le plan empirique, notre approche se base sur un important travail « d’archéologie statistique » de reconstitution de séries historiques, et de traitement de première main de millions d’observations de micro-données d’enquêtes ou de registres administratifs. Les trois angles d’analyse adoptés (au niveau macro dans une perspective historique, puis en resserrant la focale sur les seules périodes de crise au niveau le plus fin, et enfin en recomposant la dynamique d’ensemble sur les deux dernières décennies) convergent. Parmi les résultats, nous montrons la formidable résilience du marché du travail brésilien qui s’inscrit dans l’histoire, la disparition progressive depuis les années 1990 des mécanismes de la crise « canonique », supplantée par un processus d’exclusion multiforme (chômage, sous-emploi et surtout retrait forcé du marché du travail, principale force à l’oeuvre lors de la crise en cours de la COVID-19), ainsi que l’effacement partiel des frontières formel/informel, en défaveur des droits des travailleurs. Mais les crises ne sont pas toujours le meilleur point d’observation : par exemple, la phase de croissance des années 2000 apparait comme la seule période « transformative », qui a laissé une empreinte positive et durable sur le monde du travail, démonstration que des politiques progressistes sont susceptibles de jouer un rôle de premier plan. En conclusion et en s’appuyant sur nos résultats, nous ébauchons les perspectives d’un programme de recherche collectif et de longue haleine.___________________________________________________________________ This article analyzes the adjustments of the Brazilian labor market over the long term, particularly during periods of macroeconomic crisis, which have occupied almost half of the last forty years. One of the objectives is to submit the various theories of the informal to empirical evidence, and in particular the hypothesis of its anti-cyclical role postulated by the dualist thesis (a model that we qualify as the “canonical crisis »). Empirically, our approach is based on an important work of "statistical archeology" to reconstruct historical series, and first-hand processing of millions of observations of micro-data from surveys or administrative records. Our three approaches (at the macro level from a historical perspective, then by narrowing the focus only to the periods of crisis at the microdata level, and finally by recomposing the overall dynamics over the last two decades) converge. Among the main findings, we show the tremendous resilience of the Brazilian labor market, which goes down in history, the gradual disappearance since the 1990s of the mechanisms of the “canonical” crisis, supplanted by a process of multifaceted exclusion (unemployment, underemployment and above all forced withdrawal from the labor market, the main force at work during the ongoing COVID-19 crisis), as well as the partial erasure of formal / informal borders, to the detriment of workers' rights. However, crises are not always the best starting point: for example, the growth phase of the 2000s appears to be the only “transformative” period, which left a positive and lasting imprint on the world of work, a demonstration that progressist policies are likely to play a leading role. In conclusion and based on our results, we outline the prospects for a collective and long-term research program.

Suggested Citation

  • François Roubaud & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Alexis Saludjian, 2021. "Crises, informalité et reconfigurations sur le marché du travail : quatre décennies de bouleversements économiques au Brésil," Working Papers DT/2021/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202103
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    File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2021/2021-03
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marché du travail; crises; informalité; dynamique de long terme; Brésil; COVID-19; Labour Market; Crisis; Informality; Long Term Dynamics; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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