IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dia/wpaper/dt202012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The municipios facing COVID-19 in Brazil: socioeconomic vulnerabilities, transmisssion mechanisms and public policies

Author

Listed:
  • François Roubaud

    (DIAL-LEDa, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Université)

  • Mireille Razafindrakoto

    (DIAL-LEDa, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Université)

  • João Saboia

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Marta Castilho

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Valeria Pero

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

Abstract

Early October 2020, Brazil was one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, both in number of proven cases (3rd) and in number of deaths (2nd), while the first wave of the pandemic is not over yet. This paper intends to provide knowledge on the development of the pandemic in Brazil and therefore to feed into the reflection on the policies implemented or to be promoted to combat it. The study has two objectives: to identify the risk factors for contracting COVID-19 and dying from it, according to different social categories; to highlight potential transmission channels as well as the effect of a number of measures. Carried out at the level of all Brazilian municipalities (5,570), the analysis is based on the matching of different statistical and administrative databases, involving the processing of tens of millions of observations. To our knowledge, it is the first of its kind in Brazil. The econometric analysis conducted in five points in time shows three main results. First, structurally vulnerable populations are the most affected: non-white, poor, poor health, favela residents, informal people, highlighting the effect of socioeconomic inequalities when facing of the disease. Second, "density" (both within neighborhoods and housing) and "mobility" are decisive. Third, we highlight some policies consequences. In the municipios where containment measures were taken earlier, the pandemic is better controlled. The Auxilio emergencial has a mitigating effect in localities where there are relatively more informal workers, who can, thanks to it, limit their business trips and better protect themselves. Finally, COVID-19 hits the most in the municipios more favorable to President Bolsonaro. The president's ambiguous speech and attitudes may induce his supporters to adopt risky behavior more often and to suffer the consequences. _____________________________________________________________________ No início de outubro de 2020, o Brasil era um dos países mais afetados pela COVID-19, tanto em número de casos comprovados (3º) quanto em número de óbitos (2º), enquanto a primeira onda da pandemia ainda não tinha terminado. Este artigo pretende fornecer novos conhecimentos sobre o desenvolvimento da pandemia no Brasil e, portanto, alimentar a reflexão sobre as políticas implementadas ou a serem promovidas para combatê-la. O estudo tem dois objetivos: identificar os fatores de risco para contrair e morrer de COVID-19, segundo diferentes categorias sociais; realçar os canais de transmissão potenciais, bem como o efeito de uma série de medidas. Realizada ao nível de todos os municípios do país (5.570), a análise baseia-se no confronto de diferentes bases de dados estatísticos e administrativos, envolvendo o processamento de dezenas de milhões de observações. Até onde sabemos, é o primeiro estudo do gênero no Brasil. As estimativas econométricas, referentes a cinco datas differentes, mostram três resultados principais. Em primeiro lugar, as populações estruturalmente vulneráveis são as mais afetadas: não brancos, pobres, saúde precária, moradores de favelas, trabalhadores informais, evidenciando o efeito das desigualdades socioeconômicas frente à doença. Em segundo lugar, os fatores de "densidade" (tanto dentro dos bairros quanto na habitação) e "mobilidade" são decisivos. Terceiro, destacamos a influência de elementos da política e similares. Nos municípios onde as medidas de contenção foram tomadas mais cedo, a pandemia é melhor controlada. O Auxilio Emergencial tem um efeito mitigador nas localidades onde há relativamente mais trabalhadores informais, que podem, graças a ele, limitar seus deslocamentos para o trabalho e proteger-se melhor. Finalmente, a CoVid-19 causa mais estragos nos municípios mais favoráveis ao presidente Bolsonaro. O discurso ambíguo do presidente poderia estar induzindo seus apoiadores a adotarem comportamentos de risco com mais frequência e a sofrerem as consequências.

Suggested Citation

  • François Roubaud & Mireille Razafindrakoto & João Saboia & Marta Castilho & Valeria Pero, 2020. "The municipios facing COVID-19 in Brazil: socioeconomic vulnerabilities, transmisssion mechanisms and public policies," Working Papers DT/2020/12, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2020/2020-12
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Bento & Kalliu Carvalho Couto, 2021. "A Behavioral Perspective on Community Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Paraisópolis in São Paulo, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; COVID-19; Municipalities; Socioeconomic Inequality; Informality; Public Policy; Brasil; COVID-19; Municípios; Desigualdades Socioeconômicas; Informalidade; Politicas Públicas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diallfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Loic Le Pezennec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diallfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.