Global improvements in the representation of women in science are stalling

Achieving gender parity is essential for scientific innovation and equitable career opportunities. Yet gender inequality persists, rooted in the disparities in academic entry, attrition, and international mobility. Existing studies have often examined these components separately or within limited geographic or disciplinary settings. This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of both current and future global trends in gender parity in academia across more than 180 countries. We construct academic career trajectories using 47 million publication records from Scopus spanning 1996 to 2023, covering all major scientific disciplines. We then apply a demographic estimation and projection framework that decomposes gender disparities into their interdependent components: entry rates, exit rates and international migration rates. This approach enables us to identify not only whether parity is improving, but which population processes drive progress or stagnation in each country. We estimated that the number of female scholars per male scholar (GPI) increased significantly during the initial observed period. However, this progress is now stalling: the rate of improvement towards higher representation of women has stagnated in more than half of countries worldwide. Our projections up to 2040 indicate that, if current trends persist, the progress towards gender parity will slow down or reverse within the next two decades in many countries, including some that experienced prior success. These findings highlight an urgent need for global and national policies that expand equitable entry into scientific careers, reduce the disproportionately high attrition of women, and support more sustainable research production systems for women.