Growing divergences: a research note forecasting ultimate childlessness by education in the Nordic countries

Recent period trends in the Nordic countries show rapid declines in first births, particularly among lower-educated men and women. This study translates these period changes into cohort patterns and analyzes observed and forecasted ultimate childlessness by education for men and women born 1970–1987/88 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden using register-based data. We apply three forecasting methods: freeze rates, five-year extrapolation, and a nonparametric approach based on historical first-birth probabilities. Results reveal the steepest increases in ultimate childlessness among the lowest educated, approaching as high as 40% among low-educated women and 50% among low-educated men in some of the countries. Among the higher tertiary educated, childlessness is overall lower and remains relatively stable. By contrast, men with lower tertiary education show notable increases in childlessness, in some cases reaching levels similar to or higher than those of upper-secondary-educated men. While overall childlessness in Denmark remains stable, it exhibits the fastest widening educational gap. These findings underscore a growing educational polarization in the transition to parenthood across the Nordic societies, with women’s childlessness patterns increasingly resembling those of men—a marked shift in the region’s fertility landscape. Keywords: Ultimate childlessness, educational gradients, Nordic countries, forecasting, gender convergence