Inflation and Money in Ukraine
This paper treats inflation in Ukraine between 1993 and 1996 as an essentially monetary phenomenon : price increases are determined in such a way as to bring the real value of the supply of money into balance with real money demand. Cointegration techniques are used to estimate long-run money demand. A vector error correction model explains the month-to-month dynamics of inflation, real money are interest rates. The policy variable which determines the medium term value of inflation is the monetary base. If money supply is not accomodating, the effect on inflation of administered price shocks is transitory. These conclusions are illustrated by simulating the effects of a hypothetical increase of 10% in the monetary base of April, 1996, and comparing them with the inflationary effects of a hypothetical administered price shock of 10% in the same month. The money supply raises prices slowly and durably. The administered price shock causes a transient jump in inflation which begins to be reserved after one month.
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