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HKC10 - Disasters, Labor Migration, and Migrant Downgrading: Evidence from Typhoons in the Philippines

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Abstract

I study how typhoons affect international labor migration from Philippine municipalities using administrative data on the universe of new migrant contracts. Typhoons increase out-migration for up to three years, but simultaneously shift migrants toward lower-paying occupations and destinations. Average migrant cohort wages fall by 0.27– 0.41% for each 1% typhoon-induced increase in migration. This fall is not explained by observable selection, as typhoon-induced migrants have higher educational attainment. These patterns are consistent with a simple migration search model, where worsening origin conditions incentivize potential migrants to search and leave for lower-paying overseas contracts. Despite this downgrading, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest 16–19% of the increase in remittances following typhoons can be attributed to new labor migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Murathanoglu, Emir, 2026. "HKC10 - Disasters, Labor Migration, and Migrant Downgrading: Evidence from Typhoons in the Philippines," Oberlin College Kasper Economics and Business Working Papers Series 2607, Oberlin College, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cxv:wpaper:2607
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    File URL: https://digitalcommons.oberlin.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1017&context=economics_wps
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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