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Conservatisme, représentativité et ancrage dans un contexte dynamique : une approche expérimentale

Author

Listed:
  • Anne CORCOS

    (CRIISEA, Université de Picardie)

  • François PANNEQUIN

    (CES (université de Paris 1) et ENS-Cacchan)

Abstract

Différentes heuristiques ont été avancées par les psychologues et les économistes afin de rendre compte des comportements sur les marchés financiers. Elles soulignent les biais cognitifs qui affectent les croyances individuelles, et s’efforcent d’expliquer dans une certaine mesure les anomalies constatées sur les marché financiers. L’expérimentation menée vise à tester les heuristiques de conservatisme, de représentativité et d’ancrage-ajustement dans un contexte dynamique de quinze périodes: les sujets reçoivent, à chaque période une information financière et révisent individuellement leurs croyances quant à la qualité d’une entreprise. Les croyances observées s’avèrent incompatibles avec l’hypothèse de révision bayésienne : les sujets ont tendance à surévaluer les petites probabilités et à sous-évaluer les fortes probabilités. L’heuristique de représentativité est, de la même manière, invalidée : le traitementement économétrique montre que les sujets sous-pondèrent les signaux les plus intenses, preuve qu’ils ne tirent pas parti de leur intensités informationelles. Les hypothèses de conservatisme et d’ancrage-ajustement sont au contraire conjointement validées : les sujets sous-pondèrent l’information nouvelle quand ils révisent leurs croyances mais ce comportement de révision est pleinement conditionné au fait que les sujets s’écartent ou se rapprochant d’une valeur d’ancrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne CORCOS & François PANNEQUIN, 2008. "Conservatisme, représentativité et ancrage dans un contexte dynamique : une approche expérimentale," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2008014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2008014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    économie expérimentale; environnement incertain; révisions des croyances; inférence bayésienne; heuristiques; conservatisme; ancrage-ajustement; représentativité; processus cognitif; sur-réactions et sous-réactions.;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

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