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Incertitude sur l’effet global ou sur les délais d’action de la politique monétaire : politique robuste et activisme

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  • Daniel LASKAR

    (PSE et CEPREMAP)

Abstract

On compare deux cas d'incertitude qui ont abouti à des arguments de référence en faveur de moins d'activisme de la politique monétaire : celui où l'incertitude porte sur l'effet global de la politique, comme dans Brainard (1967) ; et celui où elle porte sur ses délais d'action, comme dans Friedman (1960). On montre que l'approche bayésienne donne des résultats similaires dans les deux cas, mais que ce n'est qu'avec une incertitude sur les délais d'action qu'une approche en termes de robustesse (critère du minimax) conduit nécessairement, à moins d'activisme. De plus, dans ce cas, l'activisme de la politique robuste est encore plus faible que ce que donne l'approche bayésienne.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel LASKAR, 2007. "Incertitude sur l’effet global ou sur les délais d’action de la politique monétaire : politique robuste et activisme," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2007043, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2007043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Politique robuste; incertitude;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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