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Incertitude sur l'effet global ou sur les délais d'action de la politique monétaire : politique robuste et activisme


  • Daniel Laskar


We compare two cases of uncertainty which have led to traditional arguments for less activist monetary policies: One, where the uncertainty concerns the global effect of policy, as in Brainard (1967); and the other where the uncertainty is about the the lags, as in Friedman (1960). We show that a bayesian approach leads to similar results in both cases, but that it is only in the case of uncertainty about lags that an approach in terms of robustness (through a minimax criterion) necessarily leads to less activism. Moreover, in that case, the robust policy is even less activist than what a bayesian approach would give. JEL Classification: E50, E60, D81.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Laskar, 2007. "Incertitude sur l'effet global ou sur les délais d'action de la politique monétaire : politique robuste et activisme," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 73(4), pages 387-421.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reldbu:rel_734_0387

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    robust policy; uncertainty; activism;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty


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