Bayesian Tests for Co-Integration in the Case of Structural Breaks : An Application to the Analysis of Wage Moderation in France
This paper considers a special non-linear time series problem, that of testing for co-integration in a Bayesian framework when there is a break in the co-integrating relationship. It is shown that a partial linearization of the likelihood function solves many puzzling questions, in particular identification and common factor restrictions which are originally imbedded in the model. A generalization of the Jeffreys' prior is derived for the dynamic parameter which monitors co-integration. The procedure is applied to a one time much debated question in France which concerns the wage regulation policy implemented at the beginning of the eighties.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 1995|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)|
Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/ires
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:1995044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sebastien SCHILLINGS)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.