Should prevention campaigns disclose the transmission rate of HIV/AIDS? Theory and evidence from Burundi
Among non-specialists, the estimates of the HIV/AIDS transmission rate are generally upwardly biased. This overestimation may be perceived as a godsend, as it increases the incentives to have protected sexual relationships. However, a pernicious effect may counterbalance this positive effect. Combined with the overestimation of the transmission rate, an occasional unprotected sexual encounter may induce the feeling that â€œthe die is castâ€ , and hence lead to a permanent neglect of condom use. In this paper, I construct a model that reflects such insidious and unexpected behavior. I calculate that the optimal transmission rate to be disclosed for safer sexual practices ranges between 5 % and 24.9 %.
|Date of creation:||26 Nov 2010|
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