IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

East Asian Steel Projections for the 1990s Revisited

Listed author(s):
  • Peter Drysdale
  • Ben Garvey

In 1989 a research team from the Australia–Japan Research Centre (AJRC) undertook a study of the prospects for the East Asian steel industry for the 1990s. The aim was to assess the impact of developments in the region on industry strategies in Australia. This paper reviews those projections to see whether they were right or wrong. It also examines the growth of the East Asian industry over the last decade in the context of developments in the industry worldwide and reviews Australia’s position in regional iron ore and coal markets during the 1990s. The central focus of the AJRC study was on what opportunities might emerge in Australia for the supply of processed steel product to the East Asian region in the 1990s. The main conclusion was that East Asia would shift from being a long-time and significant net exporter of steel product to the rest of the world to being a significant net importer of steel product, given then established trends in production, consumption and trade. At the time, this was a radical conclusion. It had an important impact on thinking about trends in the regional steel market in Australia, in Japan and elsewhere in East Asia. The main conclusions of the AJRC study turned out to be correct. The industry did not adjust to the pressures in the market exactly as predicted, partly because of the financial crisis in East Asia and Japan’s domestic stagnation. However, the conclusions about the growth of China and its impact on regional steel trade were particularly prescient. In the last decade, China has become the world’s largest producer and consumer of steel while Japanese consumption and production have contracted. Both South Korea and Taiwan have increased their shares of production and consumption of steel. Australia has entrenched its position as the dominant supplier of iron ore and coking products to East Asia.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series Asia Pacific Economic Papers with number 322.

in new window

Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2001
Handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcau:322
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Canberra ACT 2601

Phone: (61-2) 6249 3780
Fax: (61-2) 6249 3941
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. Motoshige Itoh & Yukiko Ito & Ray Trewin & Kozo Kiyota & Shujira Urata, 2001. "Changes in the Japanese Food Sector," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 319, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Services content of Japanese trade," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 261-292, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcau:322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Akira Kinefuchi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.