IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Filtering and Prediction in Noncausal Processes


  • Christian Gouriéroux

    () (CREST and University of Toronto)

  • Joann Jasiak

    () (York University)


This paper revisits the filtering and prediction in noncausal and mixed autoregressive processes and provides a simple alternative set of methods that are valid for processes with infinite variances. The prediction method provides complete predictive densities and prediction intervals at any finite horizon H, for univariate and multivariate processes. It is based on an unobserved component representation of noncausal processes. The filtering procedure for the unobserved components is provided along with a simple back-forecasting estimator for the parameters of noncausal and mixed models and a simulation algorithm for noncausal and mixed autoregressive processes. The approach is illustrated by simulations

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gouriéroux & Joann Jasiak, 2014. "Filtering and Prediction in Noncausal Processes," Working Papers 2014-15, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2014-15

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Crest working paper version
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2015. "Nonlinear dynamic interrelationships between real activity and stock returns," CREATES Research Papers 2015-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item


    Noncausal Process; Nonlinear Prediction; Filtering; Look-Ahead Estimator; Speculative Bubble; Technical Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2014-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Secretariat General). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.