The Effects of the Invasion of Ukraine on Russian Sentiments

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 reshaped geopolitics and intensified debates on how wars influence domestic political support. Media reports and scholarly work based on aggregate time-series data suggest rally effects, reflected in an immediate surge in Putin's approval ratings. Leveraging the quasi-experimental timing of the invasion relative to survey fieldwork by Levada and Gallup World Poll, we show that the invasion not only increased support for Putin but also fostered greater optimism about the future, strengthened anti-Western attitudes, and reduced migration aspirations. These effects were broadly consistent across demographic groups, with the notable exception of residents in Moscow. The mobilization, however, had the opposite effects, albeit only temporarily. Our analyses also indicate that Russians abroad have become more critical of Putin, aligning with global views. Taken together, these findings provide new evidence on autocratic leaders' use of foreign conflicts as a tool for domestic support.