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Welfare, Conjugal Unions and Single Motherhood in Canada: Estimates from a Hazard Model

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Cette étude cherche à identifier l'influence des caractéristiques socio-économiques des femmes chef de famille monoparentale au Canada sur leur propension à former une union conjugale. Elle s'appuie sur des données rétrospectives construites à partir de l'Enquête sociale générale sur la famille réalisée par Statistique Canada en 1990. Une attention particulière ezt accordée aux facteurs économiques externes qui varient dans le temps afin de mettre en évidence leur rôle sur les sorties de la monoparentalité. L'estimation d'un modèle paramétrique de durée permet de capter l'effet de différentes variables explicatives, certaines fixes d'autres variables, communes ou non à toutes les mères seules sur la durée des épisodes de monoparentalité. Le résultat le plus frappant est l'effet significatif et négatif qu'exercent les prestatins provinciales d'assistance sociale sur la probabilité de vivre avec un (nouveau) conjoint: une hausse réduit la probabilité d'une union conjugale et accroît la valeur attendue des épisodes de monoparentalité. En revanche les résultats montrent que la monoparentalité n'est pas un état permanent mais une situation transitoire pour la grande majorité des mères seules. This paper focuses on the determinants of the likelihood of remarriage (marriage) for female heads with children. Using retrospective data from Statistics Canada's 1990 Family History Survey, the study attempts to identify which socio-economic caracteristics of single mothers conducive to conjugal union formation (formal or informal). Particular attention is given to extermal time-varying economic covariates, to disentangle the impact they exert on single mothers propensity to start living with a (new) partner. The empirical analysis is carried using proportional hazard models which permit the estimation of the effects of various covariates on the duration of spells of single parenthood. The most stricking result is the strong and negative effect of provincial welfare benefits on conjugal union formation: an increase would decrease the hazard of a marital match and increase the expected value of single mother spells. However, the analysis reveals that single motherhood far from representing a final state remains a transitory situation for a majority of women.

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  • Céline LeBourdais & Pierre Lefebvre & Philip Merrigan, 1994. "Welfare, Conjugal Unions and Single Motherhood in Canada: Estimates from a Hazard Model," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 9503, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:cre:uqamwp:9503
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    1. Fortin, Bernard, 1997. "Dépendance à l’égard de l’aide sociale et réforme de la sécurité du revenu," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(4), pages 557-573, décembre.

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