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Modelling Market Fundamentals: A Model of the Aluminium Market

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  • Christopher L Gilbert

Abstract

The standard approach to modelling primary commodity markets under rational expectations is to relate the commodity price to the production and consumption `surprises' (i.e. the innovations on the equations). Using the world aluminium market, I show how this approach can be modified so that both the price and stock can be written in terms of one or more market `fundamentals' which reflect the supply-demand balance on the market. This approach allows joint estimation of production, consumption, stock demand and price equations subject to cross equation restrictions. It may be seen as a formalization of the approach adopted by metals industry analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher L Gilbert, 1993. "Modelling Market Fundamentals: A Model of the Aluminium Market," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0030, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX..
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprfm:0030
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    Cited by:

    1. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.

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