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Efficiency in the Peseta Forward Exchange Rate Market

Author

Listed:
  • Ayuso, Juan
  • Dolado, Juan J.
  • Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón

Abstract

This paper applies recent cointegration techniques to analyse whether the forward market for the peseta/US dollar is efficient in both the one-month and the three-month segments of the market. Under the assumption of rationality, the premiums are small and they suggest a possible linear relationship between the premium and the expiry date of the contract. As a by-product of the analysis, an explanation is offered for the conflicting results which have been obtained in testing forward market efficiency, when such efficiency is tested with series in levels or with the deviations thereof in relation to the current spot rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayuso, Juan & Dolado, Juan J. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 1992. "Efficiency in the Peseta Forward Exchange Rate Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:627
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Margarida Abreu, 2003. "Contagion Phenomena in Financial Crises: Evidence from the Portuguese and Spanish Exchange Rate Crises in the Early Nineties," Working Papers Department of Economics 2003/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Dios Palomares, Rafaela & Martínez Paz, José Miguel & Martínezcarrasco Pleite, Federico, 2006. "Including environmental variables in the effi ciency analysis: A three-step method/El análisis de efi ciencia con variables de entorno: un método de programas con tres etapas," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 477-497, Abril.
    3. Christodoulakis, Nicos M. & Kalyvitis, Sarantis C., 1997. "Efficiency testing revisited: a foreign exchange market with Bayesian learning," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 367-385, June.
    4. Margarida Abreu, 2003. "Contagion Phenomena in Financial Crises: Evidence from the Portuguese and Spanish Exchange Rate Crises in the Early 1990s," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 201-225, July.

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