IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Shifting, Technology Policy and Sales Contingent Claims: When is Launch Aid to the Aerospace Industry A Subsidy?


  • Kaivanto, Kim
  • Stoneman, Paul


This Paper studies the criteria with which the presence or absence of ‘subsidy’ in sales contingent Launch Aid R&D support may be determined when payoff-relevant market incompleteness limits the precision of market-based pricing to non-trivial intervals. The criteria currently employed in WTO and EU proceedings are consistent with correct accounting for the opportunity cost of capital when markets are complete and frictionless, but fail in the presence of payoff-relevant market incompleteness where the interval between bid and ask prices may not be finessed away. An economic definition of subsidy must necessarily capture opportunity cost, and we develop a definition that fully incorporates government’s opportunity cost in both complete and incomplete market settings. With this in hand we then revisit some commonly posed questions concerning the subsidy status of Launch Aid, giving indication of how they may be best resolved by those in possession of the relevant details.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaivanto, Kim & Stoneman, Paul, 2004. "Risk Shifting, Technology Policy and Sales Contingent Claims: When is Launch Aid to the Aerospace Industry A Subsidy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4798, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4798

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    2. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Artificial Regressions," Working Papers 978, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    4. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 363-384, December.
    6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    7. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Christoph Duenwald, 2000. "Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles; Evidence From Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 00/2, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
    11. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998. "The Nordic Banking Crisis; Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 161, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    13. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises; Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization?," IMF Working Papers 95/61, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    15. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    19. Abdelhak S Senhadji & Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/20, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Kaivanto, Kim & Zinober, Alan, 2015. "When are Capital Structure Decisions Nonseparable from Production Planning? The Case of Generalized Royalty-Based Hybrid Finance," MPRA Paper 66963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kim Kaivanto & Alan Zinober, 2015. "When are capital structure decisions nonseparable from production planning?," Working Papers 96496260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Kaivanto, Kim & Stoneman, Paul, 2007. "Public provision of sales contingent claims backed finance to SMEs: A policy alternative," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 637-651, June.

    More about this item


    civil aerospace; incomplete markets; R&D; sales contingent claims; subsidies;

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4798. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.