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The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months

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  • Spagat, Michael
  • Restrepo, Jorge

Abstract

Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply against long-run averages since 1988, lower for April-December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-to-guerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; government paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrilla paramilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Spagat, Michael & Restrepo, Jorge, 2004. "The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months," CEPR Discussion Papers 4570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4570
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019," MPRA Paper 539, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Colombia;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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