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Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months

  • Michael Spagat


  • Jorge Restrepo


Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply to long-run averages since 1988, lower for April- December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-toguerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; governmentparamilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrillaparamilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.

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Paper provided by FUNDACIÓN PONDO in its series INVESTIGACIÓN ECONÓMICA EN COLOMBIA with number 002147.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 30 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000100:002147
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