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Portfolio Choice, Liquidity Constraints and Stock Market Mean Reversion

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  • Michaelides, Alexander

Abstract

This Paper solves numerically for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice of an infinitely lived investor facing short sales and borrowing constraints, undiversifiable labour income risk and a predictable time varying equity premium. The investor aggressively times the market while positive correlation between permanent earnings shocks and stock return innovations generates a substantial hedging demand for the riskless asset. Moreover, a speculative increase in savings arises when stock returns are expected to be high and conversely when future returns are expected to be low. Small information/optimization costs can make it optimal for an investor to assume i.i.d excess stock returns, both because liquidity constraints can be frequently binding and because households can smooth idiosyncratic earnings shock using a small buffer stock of wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "Portfolio Choice, Liquidity Constraints and Stock Market Mean Reversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 2823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2823
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    2. Michael Haliassos & Alexander Michaelides, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 143-177, February.
    3. Hui-Ju Tsai & Yangru Wu, 2015. "Optimal portfolio choice with asset return predictability and nontradable labor income," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 215-249, July.
    4. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carolina Fugazza & Giovanna Nicodano, 2014. "Optimal Life-Cycle Portfolios for Heterogeneous Workers," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2283-2323.
    5. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    6. Anthony W. Lynch & Sinan Tan, 2004. "Labor Income Dynamics at Business-Cycle Frequencies: Implications for Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 11010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Buffer stock saving; Liquidity constraints; Portfolio choice; Stock market mean reversion; Stock market predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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